Australian polls have done a reasonably good job of predicting national results (although individual seat polling is much less reliable). Despite leading on the other standard question asked in national polling – “preferred prime minister” – the government can’t take much comfort from it. Turnbull continues to outperform Bill Shorten when voters are asked to name their preferred prime minister but this question does not do a good job of predicting election results. It’s worth comparing the latest polling with support for Tony Abbott and the Coalition in opposition before the 2013 election. Labor scraped back in to government as a minority at the 2010 election and, within months, the Coalition had taken the lead.

Source: The Guardian April 08, 2018 20:03 UTC